Challenges for Asia in
the next decade
Asia is the largest continent of the world with the
largest and the most diverse population. Geography, cultures, norms, beliefs,
traditions, ethnicities and social structures divide it into not just many
countries but also sub-countries. In fact it would be justified to call Asia- a
world in itself.
Today, Asia is at the centre stage of the world and
that is not just for one reason or for only positive reasons. Asia is projected
to be the new economic centre of the world. Historically too, Asia has been
world’s economic centre. During most of the medieval period, the economies of
India and China accounted for almost 50 percent of the world GDP. There was
flourishing trade among various countries and economic exchanges generated huge
wealth. Though colonization did create disconnect between the past and the
present, history has started repeating itself with reinforcement of trade ties
in the era of economic liberalization and integration. However, too much
optimism can sometimes be misleading and may make us ignorant of the realities
and the challenges that confront us. It may make us take things for granted and
may weaken our response and attention towards the desired objectives. Future of
Asia will depend upon the broad outlook with which its participating members
define its identity and role in the world and how they compliment, sort and
harmonize the various factors which concern an average Asian country in general
and an average Asian individual in particular.
Asia entered
the modern era when Western World had already defined and developed the ideas
that described modernization. Thus, the ideas upon which most Asian countries
fought against colonization were not their original ideas. After gaining
independence, their state structures also reflected the ideas and political
philosophy that evolved in the west. However, the post-colonialisation Asian
societies differed a lot (in terms of prosperity, literacy, scientific temper
and rational attitude) from their western counterparts and hence, their
responses were also different. Further, any new idea takes certain time to get
imbibed and absorbed into the mainstream sociological beliefs and norms of a
society. This process of imbibition and assimilation was not completed (in
whole or in part) for most Asian countries and hence resulted in a lag between
the state and the social apparatuses. This difference was accentuated by the
illiteracy and economic misery prevailing in these countries and pluralistic
nature of their populations. The compulsions of retaining political power and
privileges attached with it bred corruption in these countries. It was
overlapped by power politics at the international level in the form of cold
war. Thus, large sections of these countries remained poor, diseased and
malnourished and devastated by frequent wars (internal and external).
The challenge for Asia today is that, as a
continent, it hardly exists. It is more a geographical continuum with various
countries occupying the space. Though globalization, economic integration and
means of communication have improved linkages among the countries of Asia,
there remains a vast disconnect in the form of suspicions, trust deficit and
insecurities. Border disputes, historical problems, enmity and competition have
prevented any concerted action and response from the Asian countries. In fact,
no continent in the world reflects so much lack of solidarity as does Asia.
Africa has African Union with membership of all its countries, North American
countries have their own special relationship, South American continent’s
members have several arrangements for generating a “sense of togetherness and
unity”, Europe has been linked by the European Union whose membership is
increasing. The countries in these continents also have disputes and
differences but these differences don’t prevent them from identifying proximity
with each other. They are recognized and defined in the world by their
continental existence.
Asia, on the contrary, seems to be split into parts-
namely, West-Asia, South-Asia, South-East Asia, Central-Asia and East-Asia. The
great spatial expanse has now negatively gained political grounds to remain
divided on socioeconomic, developmental and other issues. The countries of
these sub-groups have political arrangements to coordinate their actions and
promote cooperation (e.g. ASEAN, SCO, SAARC, BIMSTEC, Arab League) however
mutual suspicions still affect ties. For e.g. Japan and China’s relations are
far from friendly, though they have strong economic ties. The lack of
“pan-Asian identity” and “an Asian consciousness” has caused serious damages to
this continent’s interests and has led to interventions from major powers which
continue even today. Asian countries have had civilizational ties, share similar
cultures and values and a long history of amicable relations. Barring Japan,
most Asian countries are passing through similar demographic stages and are
pluralistic societies with various minority groups. All these make them prone
to similar problems and challenges. Still, Asian countries have remained
largely introvert in their actions and outlooks and have responded to
adversities on other Asian members as per their own national and political
interests. One reason for this has been the immense domestic challenges that
these countries faced during the initial years of their independence. For e.g.
India avoided condemning USA for bombing Vietnam as it was facing severe
drought and was dependent on US food aid during late 1960s. Again, when US aid
was not coming easy, India moved closer to Russia and signed a Treaty of
Friendship with it even when it was a committed NAM member. Here, national
interest became prior to regional interest. Later, India supported Northern
Alliance led by Russia to invade Afghanistan, though India’s stated foreign
policy objective was “no major power intervention in South Asia”. This led to development of trust-deficit
among India’s smaller neighbors which hampers meaningful cooperation even
today. For e.g. Pakistan’s foreign policy has remained mainly India centric.
Also, China’s aggressive claims on South-China Sea have caused South East Asian
countries to firm up their defense and take sides with the US. Nuclearisation
of many countries has further deepened insecurity dilemma among the non-nuclear
states. Arab-Israel conflict, Indo-Pak conflict on Kashmir issue and US and
Pakistani support to fundamentalist and extremist elements during the cold war
(to control Afghanistan) has led to the rise of terrorism with transnational
character. Several terrorist groups have emerged in Indonesia, Philippines,
Lebanon, Jordan, also.
Another
reason for the trust deficit and lack of solidarity among Asian countries is
the individual and personal aspirations of individual countries. If you aspire
to be a superpower, then your interest would be in not letting others reach and
acquire things that you have acquired. China and India are aspiring to become
global powers and superpowers. China is using military and economic aid and
investment as diplomatic tools to make friends and control resources while
India is catching fast. The geopolitical and geo-economic fallout of their
individual aspirations will compel them to get involved in many zero-sum games.
Though both of them claim to be seeking peaceful development, their engagement
in developing and acquiring missiles, submarines, aircraft carriers and other
deadly weapons tells a different story. The arms race has been further
bolstered by individual defense capability enhancement programmes of these
countries. They argue that they need sufficient defense capabilities to secure
their increasingly global interests. However, security is more a psychological
perception then a real cause of concern. Further, security can be ensured
through cooperation and joint operations which increase trust among the
members, build vested interests and make redundant the individual acquisition
of arms and weapon systems. Such an arrangement has to be evolved with entire
Asian region’s security in perspective and participation from all the members.
Moreover,
Asian countries are known to be engaged less with their neighbors than with
their distant partners for e.g. South-Asia. In-fighting among countries has
resulted in foreign interventions (through UN, US, etc) in the name of
guaranteeing security. Iraq invaded Kuwait disrespecting its territorial
sovereignty leading to counter-attack from US led forces. Arab countries had
conflicts with Israel which had open support of US and other west countries.
Mostly, the focus of these countries has been to solve problems with military
might and to solve them alone with no regard to public opinion and consensus
building. In 1971, India did not bother to take Asian community into confidence
before launching an operation against Pakistani forces in East Pakistan to
prevent their atrocities which had resulted in massive influx of refugees into
India and was threatening its economic stability. This “go alone” approach
created “fear factor” or “the big brother syndrome” among India’s smaller
neighbors and is the cause of failure of organizations like SAARC. Also, when
an Asian country’s sovereignty was challenged, the response from Asian
community was a mere “condemnation” or “concern” or “a resolution from a
multilateral platform” like NAM which meant nothing concrete. This was the case
during Vietnam War, Afghanistan invasion, first Gulf War and even during second
Gulf War which was launched by US on the pretext of finding WMDs. Moreover,
Asia has repeatedly failed in resolving conflicts on its own, thus generating
repeated tensions and insecurities, to be exploited by outsiders.
The next
challenge to Asia comes from its unsustainable growth and imported
interpretations of “what constitutes development”. The situation of the world in
general and Asian economies in particular resembles a plane whose direction is
lost but speed remains unabated. Clearly, they are heading for a disaster. What
suited USA or Europe may not necessarily suit us in the medium and long-term.
We need not repeat mistakes committed by them. The developed world became
developed despite adopting energy intensive models because they had resources
of their colonies to spare and much less populations to feed. Asia, on the
contrary, has vast population and much less resources. China is the second
largest economy of the world but its per capita income is less than one-tenth
of that of US. In future, it may even overtake USA but its per capita wealth
will remain less for a long time. China’s demand has begun to affect the prices
of raw materials in the world market. It is engaged in securing resources from
all over the world. Scarcity of resources (especially water) can become a cause
of conflict among countries. Asia’s developmental strategy must find ways to
address this challenge. Concerted action, shift to low energy and clean energy
based economic models and focus on improving overall welfare rather than
individualistic comforts can help tackle resource crunch and ensure
inter-generational equity of natural resources.
Environment
is another battle-field for Asia. Urban excess, deforestation, overfishing,
global warming, air and water pollution, etc have long lasting social
consequences in terms of health, economic efficiency and cultural dislocation.
A relative study of resource availability, population and environmental costs
proves that consumerism based economic model may not be sustainable for Asia.
For e.g. China, the fastest growing car market in the world may alone have 500
million or so cars on its roads in future. How would it impact the air quality
of this country? And what about the problems of parking, traffic, repair, etc?
And many families will still be left without cars. Obviously, somewhere in the
future, we will have to apply brakes. An efficient, fast and comfortable public
transport system would moderate demand for private vehicles and would be more
sustainable too. Also, there is strong need for a Pan-Asian organization to
ensure swift action during natural disasters of transnational characters.
Rising religious fundamentalism and extremism is
another problem being observed all over Asia.
It is also a pretext for foreign interventions and conflicts among
countries. Extremism is like burning coal which burns the hands of the one who
lifts it. Extremist tendencies have to be rejected outright. Such elements have
to be won over by dialogue and force should be employed only as the last
option. It should be ensured that no state or state agency should engage or
support these elements. Pakistan is bearing the brunt of supporting and raising
extremists in the past, with terror attacks taking place all over the country.
The situation in Afghanistan is still not normal and large areas remain under
control of Taliban. Negotiations and economic incentives are being proposed as
way forward to bring the relatively moderate factions among the Taliban to the
path of peace, which should be pursued more vigorously.
Development
has a cultural dimension too. The Asian societies have distinct norms,
behavioral patterns and social institutions which are coming under challenge
from dominant Western Cultural influences, resulting in tendencies of
ethnocentrism and xenocentrism. The problem is not just the influence, but also
the speed of influence. Mass media like Television, Internet, Social Networking
websites, and News agencies is exposing Asian societies to ideas and behavioral
patterns which are different and at times contradictory to the previously held
beliefs and norms. In fact, all ideas of the good life and personal success,
most of the dreams of individuals and societies across Asia, are all inspired
and adopted from western culture. As deviance from norms of the societies is
becoming increasingly visible, the radical elements of these societies are
devising more violent and coercive methods of social control. Honour killings
in Pakistan are crude examples of it. Even the traditionally moderate and
flexible Hindu society in India has witnessed emergence of groups like the Ram
Sene, Bajrang Dal, etc which oppose Valentine’s Day celebrations, dancing of
women in pubs, etc. But people cannot be allowed to use violence to impose
their will. The flow of ideas, cultures and behavioral patterns cannot be
stopped in the era of globalization. The societies will automatically adapt and
synthesize the ideas in the present light after passing through a transitory
phase. However, simultaneously, provisions can be made for the preservation of
elements of indigenous cultures like language, art forms, dances,
architectures, etc so as to generate pride among indigenous people.
The ever widening gap between the rich and the poor,
the rural and the urban populations is another challenge for Asia. Growing
economic disparity is attributable to lopsided and asymmetric distribution of
economic gains and progress. The societies in Asian countries are divided on
lines of religion, caste (specific to India), ethnicity, etc. Economic
inequalities are worsening these differences because in most cases economic and
other strata overlap, i.e. those having privileged social positions are also
economically high class and vice versa. This may cause social conflicts and
threaten stability and peace. The Naxalites in India, aiming to overthrow state
machinery through violent revolution, are concentrated in country’s most
under-developed regions. Similarly, discrimination against minorities has fumed
terrorist and separatist tendencies in various countries. Development must
ensure equality of opportunity so that everyone has a chance to realize his
potential. Basic necessities like food, health, housing, education, clean
water, sanitation etc must be accessible to all. The primary health care system
and primary education system should be efficient and government led (though
private sector may also contribute) so that no one is left behind. Employment
oriented industries like Tourism, Retailing, Textiles, Handicrafts and
alternative energy sources, need to be promoted so that dependence of large
populations on agriculture comes down. Simultaneously, there is strong need to
install efficient judicial institutions all across Asia which work autonomously
and in unbiased manner and help deliver justice with respect to human values.
An independent judiciary will help fighting corruption and improve delivery of
government services. It will also keep a check on the uncontrolled use of power
by the government against weaker sections. All these steps will not only
generate internal cohesion among countries, but will also promote larger Asian
harmony.
Asia needs an organization like “Asian Union” with
voluntary participation of all the member countries and with respect for
“territorial integrity and sovereignty” (the principles which define ASEAN
also). It should have political, economic, environmental, cultural and security
wings with participation of individuals of excellence in the respective spheres
from all the countries. This will help coordinate public policies and ensure
emergence of a Pan-Asian identity. Politically, it will be a force to reckon
with at the Global stage. Common security emanating from inter-governmental
military alliance would deter any foreign power from challenging the
sovereignty of even the smallest members and would render useless the
development of nuclear weapons by individual countries. It will also help in
fighting drug and human trafficking, terrorism and communicable diseases. The benefits of concerted actions will lure
more and more countries to acquire membership. Such scenario will create
suitable environment for resolving long standing political disputes. It will
also save huge amounts of resources (financial and material both) and political
energies (tactics, bandwagon strategies and game play) which would be required
to build and demonstrate individual capacities in case no such platform
materializes. Ensured of security, the governments will have no excuse for
non-performance and will be compelled to work towards human welfare. The
concept of “Superpower” will become meaningless because there would be no
incentive in staying alone and showcasing power. The advantages of joint
approach will far outweigh the aspirations to dominate Asia and the World. On
economic front, the sheer size of Asian markets, improved productivity,
specialization and reduced costs arising out of barrier-free connectivity will
generate enormous wealth for Asians. Economic resources will further promote R
& D and help develop technologies for peaceful and efficient uses of
resources. Those with technology will shape the world in future, hence software
of India will have to combine with Hardware of China to make the whole i.e.
complementarities will pave the way for sustained technological advancement.
Conclusively, Asia is constituted by Asians. They
have to see themselves as Asians. They have to evolve their identity as Asians
and ask their governments to take steps towards bringing various communities
closer. History has it that Asia was the leader of the world and trends in Asia
influenced societies far and wide. Today, Asia again has the opportunity to
become the world leader. With coordinated efforts and with the broader interest
of prosperity and welfare of all Asians, the Asian countries can help shape a
destiny for Asia with reinforced glory and pride.
